Title: Un modelo de corrección de errores para la relación entre el consumo de energía y el PIB en Colombia (1970-2009)
Error Correction Model for Energy Consumption – GDP relationship in Colombia 1970 - 2009
Authors: Campo R., Jacobo
Sarmiento, Viviana
Keywords: CONSUMO DE ENERGÍA
RELACIÓN DE COINTEGRACIÓN
MODELO DE CORRECCIÓN DE ERRORES DE VECTORES COINTEGRADOS (VECM)
RUPTURA ESTRUCTURAL
COLOMBIA
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
COINTEGRATION RELATION
VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM)
STRUCTURAL BREAK
CONSUMO DE ENERGIA-COLOMBIA-1970-2009
DESARROLLO ECONOMICO-COLOMBIA
PROYECTOS DE DESARROLLO-COLOMBIA
ENERGIA ELECTRICA-COLOMBIA
PRODUCTO NACIONAL BRUTO
Issue Date: Jun-2011
Citation: Campo, J. & Sarmiento, V. (2011). Un modelo de corrección de errores para la relación entre el consumo de energía y el PIB en Colombia (1970-2009). Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, Vol. 3 (1) Recuperado de http://editorial.ucatolica.edu.co/ojsucatolica/revistas_ucatolica/index.php/RFYPE/article/view/529/550
Abstract: En este artículo se presenta evidencia empírica sobre la relación entre el consumo de energía y el PIB para Colombia, durante el periodo 1970-2009. Los resultados muestran que las series son no estacionarias; es decir, son I (1) de manera individual, adicionalmente, existe una relación de largo plazo entre dichas variables. A través de un VECM se estiman las elasticidades de corto y largo plazo para analizar la dinámica de ajuste. Los resultados muestran que en el corto plazo se mantiene la hipótesis de conservación pero que a largo plazo se evidencia una retroalimentación entre ambas variables. Se concluye que en Colombia no se evidencia una relación de consumo de energía y PIB en el corto plazo, por tanto, los hacedores de política pueden implementar estrategias encaminadas a la conservación de la energía
Bibliography References: AKARCA, ¿A.T?. & LONG, ¿T.V.?. On the relationship between energy and GNP: A reexamination. Journal of Energy Development, vol.5: 326-331, 1980.

ABOSEDRA, Salaheddin, BAGHESTANI, Hamid?. New evidence on the causal relationship between U.S. Energy consumption y Gross National product. Journal of Energy and Development, vol.14: 285-292, 1991.

AL-IRIANI, M.A. Energy GDP relationship revisted: an example from GCC countries using panel causality. Energy Policy, vol.34: 3342-3350, 2006.

CHENG, B.S. An investigation of cointegration and causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Journal of Energy Development, vol. 21: 73-84, 1995.

DICHEY, D. & FULLER, ¿William?. Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 74: 427- 431, 1979.

ENGLE, R.F. & GRANGER, ¿Clive?. Co-integration and Error-Correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econométrica, vol. 55 (2): 251-276, 1987.

EROL, U., & YU, Siu Hung Eden. On the causal relationship between energy and income for industrialized countries. Journal of Energy Development, vol. 13: 113-122, 1987.

FATAI, K., OXLEY, Les, SCRIMGEOUR, Frank?. Energy consumption and employment in New Zealand: searching for causality. Paper presented at NZAE Conference. Wellington: 26-28, June 2002.

GHOSH, Sugata. Electricity consumption and economic growth in India. Energy Policy, vol. (30): 125-129, 2002.

GLASURE, Y. & LEE, Ann?. Cointegration, error correction and relationship between GDP and Energy: the case of South Korea and Singapore. Resource and Energy Economics, (20): 17-25, 1997.

GRANGER, C. & NEWBOLD, Paul. Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, vol. 2: 111-120, 1974.

HWANG, D. & GUM, B. The causal relationship between energy and GNP: the case of Taiwan. Jornal of Energy and Development, pp.219-226, 1992.

JOHANSEN, S. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12(2-3): 231-254, 1988.

JOHANSEN, S. Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econométrica, vol. 59(6): 1551- 80, November 1991.

JOHANSEN, S. y JUSELIUS, K. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration- -With Applications to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol.52(2): 169-210, May 1990.

KRAFT, J. y KRAFT, A. On the relationship between energy and GNP. Journal of Energy and Development, vol. 2 (3): 401-403.

KWIATKOWSKI, D., PHILLIPS, P., SCHMIDT, P. y SHIN, Y. Testing the null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root. Journal of Econometrics, vol. 54 (1-3): 159-178, 1992.

LANNE, M., LÜTKEPOHL, H. y SAIKKONEN, P. Comparison of unit root tests for time series with level shifts. Journal of Time Series Analysis. 2002.

MAGAZZINO, C. Energy Consumption and Aggregate Income in Italy: Cointegration and Causality Analysis. Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA). (28494), 2011.

MASIH, A., MASIH R. Energy consumption and real income temporal causality, results from a multi-country study based on Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling Techniques, Energy Economics, vol. 18: 165-183, 1996.

OZTURK, ILHAN & ACARAVCI, ALI. The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach. Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1938-1943, 2010.

PERRON, P. The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Econométrica, vol. 57(6): 1361-1401, November 1989.

SAIKKONEN, P. y LÜTKEPOHL, H. Testing for a unit root in a time series with a level shift at unknown time. Econometric Theory, vol. 18: 313-348, 2002.

SIMS, C. Macroeconomics and Reality. Econométrica, vol. 48(1): 1-48, January 1980.

SOYTAS, U. SARI, R. y OZDEMIR, O. Energy Consumption and GDP Relations in Turkey: A Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Analysis. Economics and Business in Transition: Facilitating Competitiveness and Change in the Global Environment Proceedings. Global Business and Technology Association. 838-844, 2001.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10983/639
ISSN: 2248-6046
metadata.dc.relation.ispartof: Revista Finanzas y Política Económica, Vol. 3, no. 1 (ene.-jun. 2011); p. 60-68
Appears in Collections:Finanzas y Política Económica



This item is protected by original copyright



Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.